I know this opinion will upset and even anger some people across the pond but then again it is what we in a democracy call the right to free speech so if it has upset you please feel free to ignore it.
When President Trump said that he – in fact the United States of America – had decided to unilaterally withdraw from the international Iran nuclear agreement my initial reaction was one that lay between bemusement and thinking what a completely unreliable ally America has become under the current administration.
The question is now how can any agreements with the United States politiclal, military or economic be relied upon by those they have previously made agreements or treaties with?
It is also clear that by rejecting the Trump approach to effectively “welching” on the agreement (as if it is a surprise that Donald Trump has welched on a deal) the three European Countries involved namely the United Kingdon, France and Germany by remaining firmly committed to it have also taken over the reigns of the “Leaders of the Western Democracies” from the USA.
They are joined in the Leadership role by Canada who under Trudeau are showing the US that they will not be bullied or pushed around by their noisy next door neighbours.
Of course Iran has to play its part and meet its obligations under the deal in order to continue to see sanctions against them eased and trade continue.
However we should also take into account that whatever the USA under the current administration says or does regarding taking unilateral trade sanctions against Iran countries such as India only recognise United Nations sanctions and in fact throughout the period of previous sanctions purchased oil from Iran.
In effect then the United States allies and India who are one of the biggest importers of oil in the world are simply ignoring the Donald Trump imposed USA sanctions.
So what does it mean for the future?
Well as the majority of people know once trust has been damaged – and be in no doubt trust in the USA to stick to agreements they have made has been seriously damaged and is increasingly continuing to be so – it will take an immense amount of effort by the United States to repair the damage.
It may even take decades and in some cases the trust may never be recovered.
If that is what Donald Trump and his supporters consider a price worth paying to put ‘America First’ then they now have to consider that their country is swiftly becoming a pariah around the world leaving the way open for competitors working together to compete against the USA in the world markets and openly scrap existing trade agreements with them.
I predict that this is going to be extremely hostile in the coming months and whatever platitudes are being spoken the trade war has started.