It doesn’t matter what we think about whether we believe leaving the European Union is going to be a complete economic disaster or not for the United Kingdom.
What we do know is that Theresa May insists that she and her team of David Davies, Boris Johnston and Liam Fox will get “the very best possible deal for Britain”.
Of course it is going to take some negotiating.
Negotiations that are arguably going to be more difficult than those that brought about the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland or the Unification of Germany in Europe.
Theresa May says she has compiled a one hundred page document in preparation for the negotiations, which to my mind doesn’t seem a great deal given the complexity of working through the European Union structure.
This would be complex enough if those you have to persuade are one or even two but the UK has to convince and reach an agreement with twenty seven countries the majority if not all will not be disposed to giving us an easy or even good deal.
This is going to be a particularly ugly divorce.
Just to add to the complication not only does the UK want to have a good divorce deal but they also want to have transitional measures to ease the way both to be negotiated in parallel.
A suggestion that the European Union absolutely rejects which leaves the United Kingdom with an extraordinarily weak hand.
The Conservative Brexiteers and their supporters keep arguing that the European Union need the UK and that they will suffer a major economic down turn if they don’t reach an agreement with us.
I predict that they will be proved wrong.
The reality is the majority of Europeans have been brought up to be just that – Europeans – and have for decades been educated to understand and believe that the United Kingdom is no more than a bunch of difficult and awkward small islands just of the north west of the Continent.
You can be sure that the people of Europe will be letting their leaders know that their priority is to protect their Country and the European Union not the United Kingdom who have voluntarily decided to leave the club.
If after the General Election the Conservatives are still the people negotiating Brexit the first thing they need to do is to stop acting like apes – stop thumping their chests – and telling the Europeans how strong and economically powerful we are – show a little humility – and work like hell for access to the European free market.
All that the Conservative Government posturing has achieved so far – remember Theresa May saying they will find she is a “bloody difficult woman” – is to drive a wedge of mistrust between the the UK and EU.
Civility like good manners costs nothing and if there is going to be an agreement reached it will be through thoughtful discussion and civility not chest thumping rhetoric designed for home consumption.
The problem is the UK negotiating team seem incapable to understand that strategically and tactically we are in a weak position simply because the UK depend on access to the European Union markets more than they depend on access to ours.
Even the threat to leave with no deal and in place of access to the European Free Market move to the World Trade Organisations measures is nonsensical.
How can a threat to move from a free market to one of tariffs and quotas even be a threat.
A threat to who?
The European Union – I’m sure it’ll not keep them awake at night.
We have to face up to the fact that leaving the European Union whether we like it or not is going to be worse for employment and businesses, it is going to be worse for the people of the U.K. and the consumer, it is going to be worse for employment rights and environmental standards, and it is going to be worse for Britain.
The best deal in effect means agreeing transitional arrangements involving businesses, exporters, enterprise leaders, the people and employers to mitigate against the impact on the economy.
The negotiations are going to be impossibly complicated and difficult which is why we need to have a negotiating team who understand the impact of what they are negotiating.
Sadly the three Conservative Brexiteers and their Leader are simply incapable of being up to job.