If there is one thing I’m certain about in an uncertain world it is that it is very, very unusual following a divorce for those involved to remain friends and have a relationship similar or equal to that they had before.
Never mind a “deep and special relationship”
And I can state with absolute certainty that this is even more the case following a nasty and vicious divorce.
Which brings me to the issue of the divorce proceedings instigated by the United Kingdom against their erstwhile partner the European Union.
Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a very nasty, vicious and spiteful divorce of epic proportions and not only because of the amount of money it is going to cost both parties.
Economically the UK may well find itself suffering a catastrophe of its own making, and in which the only people who can really help are those you have just told you hate and who now very understandably and naturally hate you in return.
“You need our help?”
“Just give us a little time to enjoy this schadenfreude moment, which incidentally May last decades”
If anyone in the UK thinks talking about decades before the EU will even consider helping us out just listen to what the May Government says – the one without a plan – which is that it may take over 10 years before the UK is fully out of the EU.
Which ever way you look at it that is going to be some divorce and can you imagine the wrangling that is going to take place in dividing up the assetts?
We also have to consider not one but two elephants that are going to be present, the first being that the UK if the SNP have their way will break up – two divorces running concurrently will be a first – and of course the other elephant in the room, is it £50 or £60 billion we’ll have to pay.
Who knows how much it will cost? – certainly not Theresa May and her devoted Brexiteers – but what is certain is that it is going to be very costly to the UK taxpayer for the right to take back control and ditch over 70 years of a shared history, destiny and mutual support.
To say we are living in a historic moment of European history would be the mother of all understatements.
My problem, and I’m sure it is shared by millions of others is that I have not the faintest idea what Brexit will really mean either for the UK or the EU.
Yes I have listened and heard those on both sides of the debate telling us what the impact will be, and at the same time refuting the other sides claims whilst also contradicting themselves when challenged.
Which means the only information I can really rely on is what I see happening around me such as the marked increase in food prices and weakening of the pound.
The only other thing that is definite is that we will see a continuation of the tub thumping from both sides for a very long time.
Any pleas for the nation to heal itself and come together will almost certainly fall on deaf ears.
As a result we are going to continue to be bombarded by words such as calamitous, opportunity, disaster, historic, tragic, freedom, control, independence, ruinous and wretched.
I suppose the sensible thing to do is to treat all of the politicians as pariahs and listen to them less when they are on the radio or television.
What we do know is that the negotiations are going to be long, difficult, complex and as the saying goes the “devil will be in the detail”.
On the positive side across the whole of the EU, including for the time being the UK, thousands of Government Civil Servants can get on with the job of handling the UK/EU divorce
There will also be scores of Lawyers rubbing their hands in glee at the work and more importantly the fees they’ll receive trying to sort out the legal details.
Oh the joy of bureaucracy where the respective EU Government civil servants will do their political masters bidding and try to get the very best deal for their side and the very worst for the other side.
A great deal will be accomplished and what is a 100% certainty is that they will make such a drama of it that it wouldn’t be out of place in a ‘Yes Minister’ sketch.
It will be very interesting to see when and I suppose even if the now commonly referred to “ordinary working people” will actually notice what is happening as those conducting the negotiations beaver away.
Will we see our existing rights removed?
Will we see the existing trade agreements continue on exactly the same basis as before?
Will we see the “Old Commonwealth ” nations step in to assist the “Mother Country” and give us preferential trade agreements?
Will there be a written Bill of Rights?
Will we see a mass exodus of EU Nationals working in the UK returning to, or even being deported back to their Country of origin?
The list is one that will go on, and on, and on, and will be one in which you can guarantee those on both sides of the Brexit debate will either take credit for or blame the other side.
This has all the hallmarks of being a complete buggers muddle.
Still a least we have the ancient Great Repeal Bill to fall back on and using it simplify the whole issue by simply transferring the current EU regulations into becoming UK Law.
My understanding is once that is done the Government can then take their time to go through them one by one and where necessary repeal them?
Can anyone remember an instance where a UK political party who objected to a policy when in opposition then repealed it when in Government?
I’m sure there must be some but for the life of me I can’t think of one.
Look at the opposition Labour made against the Thatcher Conservative Government Trade Union Laws.
Thirteen years of a Blair/Brown Labour Government saw precisely how many of them repealed?
Repealing laws in the U.K. simply doesn’t happen
So why should we think they will in the case of EU regulations?
The biggest problem it seems is that the Government have exactly zero idea of how much UK law is already part of EU law or vice-versa
As for the EU demand that we pay them £50 billion, and those bellicose Brexiteers, the majority of who it has to be said are sitting as Conservative MPs who insist “we will not pay”, well as we all know a compromise will be made and the U.K. will pay up.
Do the EU need the exit payment to tide them over for a period without the UK as a member
The EU may say yes because it is needed to fulfil commitments that the UK previously agreed to.
Brexiteers will say no, it is just the EU being vindictive towards the UK.
Of course the truth lies somewhere between to be argued out between the protagonists on both sides who have naturally their own vested interests namely how do they sell it to their respective electorates
Can anyone, even the most devoted Brexiteers really see the EU agreeing to seriously negotiate with the U.K. if they don’t pay up and the remaining 27 EU members saying not to worry, we’ll pay it and I’m sure our people will understand?
If they do I for one will be very interested to see how they explain it their own people.
As an aside has anyone else noticed the alongside the expression of having a “Special Relationship” with the USA, the U.K. Government is now talking of post- Brexit having “Deep and Special” relationship with the EU.
It may well be “Deep and Special,”
Deep mistrust and special resentment……
It’s what I expect to happen.
Time will reveal all.