The more I read or hear politicians from all sides of the debate, expounding on the benefits or otherwise the more I think to myself “what excuses or blame will they they come out with if and when the whole Brexit enterprise fails.”
Yes, I admit to being very cynical about the whole project and especially where the Conservative Brexiteers, May, Johnston, Davies and Fox are concerned
Put simply I have absolutely no confidence that anything they say is honest or truthful
We now know that Theresa May in triggering Article 50, (without it has to be admitted very little if any serious opposition from Labour), and her band of Brexiteers are talking of a Brave New World in which if we, the nation, pull together the UK will once again be great
So should we all rejoice and be overly optimistic about the future?
The problem is we are being fed false hopes of a yet to be delivered new world order of trade agreements that will be at the very least on exactly the same terms as present with the European Union and even better with the rest of the world.
When it doesn’t happen, as I expect it to, then I can’t help wondering what excuses the Brexiteers will come up with.
Who wants to take a bet that while the Brexiteers are regaling us with why the failure wasn’t their fault they will do it from a position of having already resigned and run away to enjoy the millions of pounds they’ve siphoned off the taxpayer during their period in the Westminster Parliament or the European Parliament.
Will it come to anyone as a surprise if the Brexiteers blame the 27 of the remaining countries in the European Union.
And why not, they were blamed for all of the U.K. woes during the debacle that was the EU referendum.
We already know that the EU have taken the negotiating position of saying that until an agreement on how the UK leaves there can be no talk of trade agreements, and certainly no access to the single market.
How dare they act in such a way to a former member whose only motivation was to leave the club and take back control of our own economy and borders
Brexiteers will naturally accuse the Europeans of being vindictive and selfish in refusing to trade with us on the same terms as at present, and didn’t they always warn us that the EU was practicing trade protectionism
Wasn’t that alone a good enough reason to Brexit?
Except of course we shouldn’t mention that we were an active participant in the protectionist policies for decades.
As an aside
Didn’t David Davies MP stand at the Dispatch Box in the House of Commons and give a firm, unequivocal and binding commitment that the UK would have the exact trade agreements and terms with the EU as present?
Well now we know the EU’s starting negotiating position good luck with that ‘Davy Boy’.
The start of the negotiations will include what is unquestionably going to be the very thorny issue of how much was the UK paying into the EU coffers and how much will we have to pay as part of the divorce settlement?
The figures are open for debate but according to Boris Johnston, David Davies, Michael Gove (whatever happened to him?) and Liam Fox, or to be correct the side of a bus they happened to be standing next to, the first figure was £350m a week
As with all contracts if you terminate your membership there is a penalty clause designed to ensure you fulfil previously agreed commitments which in this case is in the region of between £50 and £60billion
That’s £50million million pounds to us ordinary people or if you prefer £50,000,000,000,000.
Whichever way you look at it, that’s an awful lot of noughts.
I didn’t study economics at school but even I can work out that it’s xx weeks worth of the ‘bus funding’ or x years x months worth.
( Yes IKnow there is a debate about what constitutes a billion
As expected the devout Brexiteers are saying “We won’t pay”
So that’s that then, negotiations are at an end before they even begin and who is to blame
It is of course be the EU’ and didn’t the Brexiteers tell us the Europeans were unreasonable and fleecing the British Public?
Explain to me again that we only have two years to get an agreement.
I predict that what will happen is we will pay up just like when David Cameron said (remember him, the Prime Minister who to resolve internal squabbling within the Conservative Party took a gamble with the UK and then bottled it and did a runner) he wouldn’tt pay the EU a paltry £1.8billion and then did
Once paid the negotiations will be back on track and the next issue to be agreed is what do we do with all of these unwanted Europeans who have had the audacity to make the UK their home
Do you Remember them?
The free movement Europeans that work in the NHS, the Coty and elsewhere who the Brexiteers warned us are dragging down the Welfare State
The problem is if the EU nationals do not have their rights to remain in the UK secured then presumably to the great joy of the Brexiteers they will all have to leave.
Yippee, or at least that will be the cry from Easy Jet and Ryan Air who will no doubt tout for the Government Contract to fly them all home to their own countries
Will they also be awarded contracts to fly all of the Brits currently living in Europe who presumably if the EU retaliate and remove their right to remain will need to come back to the UK.
I’m sure they’ll all be delighted to be home to their a country who have taken back control.
Perhaps they will be even more delighted to be back in a country that has finally, under the Brexiteers got control of immigration and stopped those ‘bloody foreigners’ from coming here
I’m looking forward to hearing what the excuse is for when as both David Davies and his boss Theresa May have already said immigration to the UK from the EU countries will continue well into the 2020’s and beyond
Whose fault will it be?
You can guarantee it will not be the Brexiteers.
After all we have to let them in, and in fact need them because under our brilliant Government the number of British people upping sticks and leaving is increasing the blame for which will lie squarely with those other countries for being nicer and more tolerant places to live than the UK
We bloody well told you it was the foreigners, coming over here and now poaching our brightest and best that are causing the problem
Why will no one listen to us?
Why does nobody trust us?
We would have been able to stop them the Brexiteers will say except because of the number and complexity of EU regulations and laws that we have had to deal with on leaving we simply haven’t had the time
And anyway we told you the EU was bureaucratic, over regulated and therefore over complicated, but please stay overly optimistic because at last we have control and can choose which of them we’ll keep
Any idea which ones?
Human rights, maternity leave, workplace protection, working hours directive
What’s that Brexiteers – you never considered them important.
So let’s look forward to a time when there is a failure to reach an agreement and the resulting failure to agree a trade agreement with the European Union.
Of course we can always fall back on the old Commonwealth who according to the Brexiteers are lining up to once again come to the aid of the ‘Mother Country’ added to which is the promise and guarantee of course that Donald Trump, that bastion of trust and honesty gave Theresa May of a preferential trade deal with the USA.
You may have to suspend your belief regarding a Donald Trump promise while we work out if the trade deal comes before, after or as part of his ‘America First’ policy
Cynicism might well go into over drive on that, but then again perhaps we should give the benefit of any doubt to our we’ll known Christian St Theresa May who it seems is the only female on the planet who considers Donald Trump to be a ‘gentleman’ and trust to her judgement.
Scotland naturally if the SNP have their way will once they become an independent country remain a member of the EU but never mind they’ll probably make as big a horlics of taking back control as the Brexiteers in England have.
Oh how the English in the Home Counties will laugh.
If only to cover up their own embarrassment
We could as it turns out just fall back on trading under the World Trade Organisation tariffs and stoically accept the increases in food prices due the to the tariffs on imports
Oh Bugger – I forgot we are already seeing food price inflation because of the impact of Brexit on the value of the pound.
On a personal level this is going to be a problem because I’ll not be able to buy avocados grown in Spain who by all accounts and inspite of them being a NATO ally we may be at war with over who has Gibralter
You may well ask why avocados is a problem.
It is simply that mashed avocados on toast topped with bacon and a poached egg is a favourite breakfast of mine.
The other problem is that the only other avocados sold in my local supermarket are from Israel and it’s at times a nuisance but I took a decision some time ago to boycott anything from Israel until they stop building settlements on Palestinian land.
To be fair I have also boycotted anything from Turkey since their invasion of Cyprus.
Brexiteers throughout all of the trials, tribulations and families will undoubtedly continue to travel down the road of denial and tell us that taking back control has opened up the world of opportunity.
They will invoke the spirit of Nelson, Churchill and Henry V to promote their own vision of what UK patriotism in the 21st Century should be.
And when Brexit fails they will say it’s the fault of the EU who keep getting there first for the good deals.
Something to do with having a market consumer base of over 600milion people perhaps as opposed to 60 million?
Brexiteers – “We told you they were vindictive”
There is a song I recall sung by the Dubliners (yes a group from an EU country) that has the lines in it,
“Let’s not have a sniffle”
“Let’s have a bloody good cry”
“And always remember”
“The longer you live”
“The sooner you bloody well die
Which if we haven’t negotiated a deal by March 2019 may well be the United Kingdoms Obituary
The question is would the Euroopean Community welcome us back with open arms after April 2019?
Perhaps Theresa and her devoted Brexiteers will put it to a referendum?